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Poker players often talk about the long run when analyzing their play. To help understand “the long run”, try flipping a coin ten times. We know that the odds of the coin landing on heads is fifty percent.

However this does not mean that the coin will alternate between heads and tails on each consecutive flip. You are very likely to see the coin land tails a few times in a row. In those ten flips, the coin might land on heads sixty or seventy percent of the time. In reality, the results of any small sample size are likely to differ from the expected results.

It is only through repeating the process over “the long run” that we begin to achieve the expected results. If you were really bored one weekend and flipped the coin a million times, you would find that heads will land much closer to 50% than in your sample of ten coin flips.

Understanding the concept of odds and how they relate to poker will help you analyze your game and hopefully will help you deal with the emotional ups and downs of the game. As poker players we can calculate the odds of us hitting our draws.

We know that if we hold a flush draw on an unpaired board, the odds of us completing the flush on the river are 4:1. That means that if we call for one big bet after the turn, there needs to be more than four big bets in the pot for our play to be correct.

If we only call the bet if we have the correct pot odds, we know that in the long run it will be a profitable play. Obviously we won’t hit our draw on each and every hand, but we can feel good knowing that we made the right decision.

Continuing with the flush draw example, our success in any given session will often depend on us actually hitting the draw. If a player has eight flush draws in a row and doesn’t complete his draw on any of them, it is very likely he will have a losing session.

During the next session, if the same player completes five out of eight nut flush draws, he will be very likely to have a winning session. During both sessions he played great poker, but his results were dependant on the short term fluctuations of the game. After playing a million hands, this player will have hit his flush draw very close to 20 percent of the time.

Poker can be a frustrating game when we do not hit our draws despite playing correctly, due to great pot odds. Don’t be discouraged when you feel that you are not hitting your draws because if you make the right decisions, you will be a winning player in the long run.

The check raise can be an effective tool to control your opponents and force others to make mistakes. It can help neutralize your opponent’s advantage due to position. You can trap opponents with your strong hands. As well, you can protect your good but vulnerable hands in family pots. It is very important that you do not attempt to check raise passive opponents because your plan will backfire if you give them a free card if they do not bet.

When we play hands out of position, our opponents have a very large advantage since they see what we do before they act. If we always check when we have a weak hand, observant opponents will pick up on this pattern and bluff us out of pots. By check raising, we keep our opponents on their toes, and they will value bet and bluff less frequently.

In hands that involve multiple players, we can isolate players with a check raise and force those who act after us to pay multiple bets to continue in the hand. Look at the situation where there are three limpers and the button raises. We call the raise in the big blind with AJ offsuit, as do all the limpers. The flop comes J25 with two hearts and everyone checks to the pre-flop raiser. The pre-flop raiser bets as expected and we can now raise, thereby forcing the three players who act after us to pay two bets if they want to continue in the hand. If we had just bet out and any of the limpers called, they would be likely to call the extra bet if the button raises.

Check raising is an effective tool in hands with only one opponent. By check raising, which is a sign of strength, we get extra bets into the pot with our very strong hands. Opponents who tend to bluff players that show weakness will begin to become more passive in pots that you are involved in, because they fear the check raise.

While the check raise is an effective tool, it should be used relatively sparingly. If you constantly attempt to check raise your opponents, they will begin to take free cards after you check. This gives them the opportunity to outdraw you with weaker hands for free, which would be a huge mistake on your behalf. The real key is to only attempt the check raise when you feel an opponent will bet.

There is a fine line between having a winning poker session and a losing session. Winning poker players win just over fifty percent of the hands when they see a showdown. It is impossible to win every time you play poker. You will have streaks when you are running very well and can seemingly do no wrong.

At other times the game may feel like a struggle as your opponents keep hitting their draws while you feel like you couldn’t hit a draw to save your life. Over the long haul, winning players will end up winning more than they lose, but they will still have many losing sessions.

When losing sessions occur frequently, many poker players question their own ability. They wonder if they can actually beat the games they play. I’ve been asked by a number of people if I ever question my own abilities and these people know that I have won fairly consistently ever since I started playing online poker. A look of relief usually appears on their faces as I assure them that from time to time I do question my abilities during a long downswing.

By occasionally questioning my own abilities I end up going over my hand histories to ensure that I am playing good poker. Although I do find mistakes in my play, I can usually attribute a long downswing to bad luck.

I do analyze my mistakes and try to figure out why I made them and look at ways to avoid making similar mistakes in the future. The self doubt that I sometimes experience forces me to think about my abilities and ends up making me a stronger player in the long run. The human psyche is a fickle thing. Just analyzing my game does not give me the confidence that I should have as a winning poker player.

The outcome usually involves having a session which offers me some very favourable results. I end up making money playing poker, and somehow, magically, my confidence reappears. Don’t feel bad when you experience self doubt. Every poker player feels that way at some point. It is the nature of the game since you cannot win every hand.